What is the buyer actually running?
A filter, then a contest. Stage one (EOI, ROI, or a registration round) asks who is capable and interested. Stage two (the RFT or RFP to shortlisted firms) asks for the priced, evidenced offer the buyer will actually evaluate for award. The labels are defined on RFT vs RFP vs RFQ vs EOI vs ITT. The arithmetic here is separate: two pursuits for one possible contract.
Read the stage-one pack for what shortlisting commits the buyer to, usually nothing beyond an invitation. And read it for what it commits you to: methodology given away early, pricing hints that anchor stage two, exclusivity or conflict positions that narrow later options.
How do you budget two stages?
Hypothetical, to show the shape, not a benchmark. Stage one: 8 to 12 hours for capability statement, referees, a short cover against the criteria. Stage two, if shortlisted: 40 to 60 hours, the full response this site prices everywhere else. Total exposure: 48 to 72 hours for one chance, of which only the first tranche is certain to be spent.
Build the effort the way the response-time budget describes (work packages, roles, reviewer availability) for each stage separately. Then cost both tranches on the calculator. A stage one that looks cheap at 10 hours is a 60-hour commitment with a probability attached. Name the probability honestly or do not name it at all.
What are stop conditions?
Facts, agreed before stage one, that convert a shortlisting into a stage-two no. Examples: the stage-two draft contract arrives with uncapped liability your board will not sign. The shortlist holds five firms and the incumbent. The delivery window collides with a contract you have since won. Key personnel named in stage one leave.
Write two or three down and date them. Without stop conditions, shortlisting manufactures its own momentum; the firm that paid stage one cannot bear to waste it, and stage two gets written on sunk cost. That failure has a name: the zombie bid. The three-axis test still governs each stage: strategy, capacity, risk.
What does this mean for the bid/no-bid call?
Two calls, two dates. Stage one: does capability evidence exist, is the shortlist winnable, and is the total exposure (both stages) worth the chance. Stage two, if invited: re-run the full gate with the actual pack, the actual contract, and the stop conditions you set. Shortlisted is not committed. The invitation is new information, not a verdict.