Guides / Bid/no-bid / Zombie bids

Sunk cost

The hours already spent are not a reason to keep bidding.


The bid/no-bid decision guide exists because sunk cost does not feel like a fallacy in a bid room. It feels like professionalism. A zombie bid is a pursuit that has already failed the gate and is still being written.

Published: 2 September 2026 · By Andre · Reviewed by Bill · selrob

Takeaways

  • Sunk cost is not a criterion. Re-score as if the hours had not been spent.
  • Starting a response is bidding. “Just a draft” is how zombies walk.
  • Week two is the kill test. If the call is not written, you are already in.
  • Pipeline culture that rewards submissions will always produce the undead.

What is a zombie bid?

It is a tender the firm would not start today, still being pursued because it was started yesterday. The working has changed, or was never done. The draft has become the argument. People are polite about it. The close date does the rest.

You can see it in the language. “We’re too far in.” “It would look bad to pull out.” “Let’s just get it over the line.” None of those is a strategy, capacity, or risk sentence. They are the three-axis test being shouted down by a timesheet.

Why bid rooms produce them

Because the people closest to the draft are measured on finishing, and the people who could stop it are not in the room. Because the bid writer cannot own the call and yet, by week two, they do. Because a half-written response feels like an asset. It is a liability. Every additional hour makes the honest no more expensive to say, and therefore less likely.

Pipeline reviews that count live pursuits as health make it worse. Killing a bid looks like shrinking. It is not. It is returning hours to the work that still fits.

The week-two test

On day ten, take the pack and the twelve questions and score them as if nobody had opened a template. If the call is no-bid, it is no-bid. The hours already spent are a cost of the last decision, not an input to this one.

If the call is review, it still needs an owner and a day. A review that outlives the close date is a zombie wearing a better suit. If the call is bid, write down why, in the present tense, without referring to the draft.

How to kill one that is already in draft

Name it in the gate. Not “we should think about whether this is still right.” A scored no, dated, owned by BD, with delivery and finance on the vetoes they already hold. Then send the no-bid letter the same day. Waiting until the draft is “tidied” is how it survives until Friday.

Tell the people who wrote the pages that the pages did their job: they revealed the call. That is the only honourable thing you can say about work that should not have started. Then put them on a bid that passed.

Pipeline culture

If the weekly review celebrates the number of live pursuits, you will get more of them. Count the number of no-bids made in week one. Count hours returned. Count the bids that still fit. A firm that cannot show a no-bid does not have a qualification process. It has a writing habit.

There is a version of this that looks like diligence. Another legal review. Another pricing pass. Another partner who should see it. Each of those can be real. Each of them is also how a no-bid hides until Thursday. If the extra step cannot change an axis score, it is not diligence. It is delay with a job title.

Kill it in the gate, in front of the people who spent the hours, with the score on the table. Then move them. A zombie that dies in an email after the meeting will be revived by Friday, because nobody had to look at the person who wrote the pages and say the pages did their job.

Keep reading

Elsewhere in this guide.

Questions

Worth answering before you close the tab.

What is a zombie bid?

A pursuit that has already failed the gate, still being written because hours have been spent. The draft is the argument.

How do you kill a bid already in draft?

Re-score the three axes as if no hours had been spent. If it fails, stop. The hours already spent are not a criterion.

When is week two too late?

If the pack is still being read in week two, you are already bidding. The gate belongs in week one.

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