What does wired for the incumbent look like?
The criteria describe a product stack, a geographic footprint, a set of references, or a methodology that only one firm has on the shelf. The weights sit on those lines. The rest of the pack is theatre. You can still lodge a conforming bid. You will still lose. That is allowed. It is also a reason not to spend the week.
Public processes are not supposed to name the incumbent. They do not have to. A mandatory that requires five years on this exact contract is a name without a name. A capability matrix that lists last year’s deliverables in order is a memory test for the current provider.
How do you tell a hard wire from a hard specification?
A hard specification can still be a fit if you do the work that way. A hard wire cannot be evidenced without pretending. If the only honest answer to a 30 percent criterion is “we would subcontract the incumbent,” the call is no, or a named review that will not clear.
Look at the capability matrix. If every line maps to a person you cannot name, you are not bidding. You are filling a grid for a buyer who already has the grid filled.
What do clarifications reveal?
Ask the question that would expose the wire: can prior work on this contract be used as a reference by firms that did not hold it. If the answer is late, vague, or missing, you have information. Do not ask it to help the room write. Ask it to decide whether to write.
An invitation to a briefing that only the incumbent can use, a site visit timed for people already on the floor, a data room that assumes last year’s access: process artefacts. Score them. Do not get angry at them. Anger is not an axis.
Is it still worth bidding?
Sometimes. If strategy says this buyer is the next three years, and a conforming bid is cheap, and you can live with a loss that teaches the debrief, maybe. Cheap is the cost of pursuit, not a feeling. A week of principals is not cheap.
If the only argument is that a competitor will take it, that is a fake criterion. Visibility is not a strategy. Walk away, write the decline, spend the week on a pack that was written for a market, not a name.