What goes in the evidence-confidence ledger?
| Assumption | Confidence | How it gets verified | Spend allowed meanwhile |
|---|---|---|---|
| The work is coming this quarter | Medium: forward notice sighted | Watch the board; confirm at approach to market | 4 hours: buyer research and referee preparation |
| Scope fits our disciplines | Low: inferred from early market sounding | Read the pack on release; re-gate day one | Zero delivery commitment; no team promises |
| Incumbent is vulnerable | Low: single-source rumour | Debriefs, award notices, buyer behaviour; never contact | Nothing priced on this assumption |
Rows illustrate the shape and are hypothetical. Low confidence is not a stop sign; it is a spend limit. The ledger converts hope into budgeted learning.
What engagement is lawful?
Public market soundings, industry briefings, published forward plans, prior debriefs, and open buyer engagement events: all lawful, all useful. What is prohibited is contact the process closes: approaching evaluators, seeking non-public information, or discussing a live procurement outside its channels. The line is the published process; before approach to market it is wide, after it narrows to the pack’s contact rules. The criteria this discipline feeds are the twelve questions; formal multi-stage responses once issued are owned by EOIs and multi-stage tenders.
What does this mean for the bid/no-bid call?
Pre-tender work is capped learning, not a head start on bidding; the pack’s release re-opens every assumption at full gate. A firm that spends uncapped on capture has pre-committed to a bid it has not yet qualified. Ledger first, limits second, pack third.