How do you compare two pursuits?
Hypothetical, to show the shape: assumptions labelled, none presented as prediction. Pursuit Alpha: $12,000 pursuit cost, $90,000 delivery margin if won, fairly assessed one-in-three chance, delivery window clear. Pursuit Beta: $8,000 pursuit cost, $55,000 margin if won, one-in-two chance, delivery colliding with live work. Expected margin net of pursuit cost: Alpha $18,000 (a third of $90k minus $12k), Beta $19,500 (half of $55k minus $8k), near-identical on paper, decided off-paper: Beta’s delivery collision risks live revenue, while Alpha’s window is clean. The model ranks; capacity and risk decide.
Win and delivery assumptions stay explicitly uncertain throughout (ranges, not points) and the choices stay mutually exclusive: shared reviewer hours cannot appear in both budgets. Foregone consultancy utilisation enters once, on the utilisation trap’s convention: salary cost plus lost margin double-counts the same loss, so pick one treatment and hold it across both options. Qualification savings frame the alternative (the ROI model) and team capacity bounds the answer (bid-team sizing).
What does this mean for the bid/no-bid call?
Portfolio calls are still gates: bid the winner of the comparison, no-bid the loser in the same meeting, and record both on the decision record. “Both, carefully” is not a third option; it is the two-way loss the model just priced.