What does your share actually cost?
Hypothetical, to show the shape: a $180,000 specialist scope inside a $2.4 million prime bid. Your pursuit: 25 hours of solution design, pricing, and compliance evidence at loaded cost, plus the exclusivity the prime requests, which forecloses two other primes approaching for the same slot. Total exposure is pursuit cost plus foreclosed options, multiplied by a win probability you do not set. If the prime’s chance is fairly one in four and your scope survives award intact (two assumptions, both theirs), price the expected value coldly or decline warmly.
How do you qualify the prime?
As a counterparty: payment history and chain length, financial standing, substitution rights over your scope, flow-down weight, and willingness to confirm your position in writing. A prime that will not name you, confirm exclusivity terms, or share the head-contract clauses that govern your scope is asking for free option value; decline the option. Consultant role economics are on sub-consultant vs prime; head-contractor diligence detail is a later construction page; subcontracting mechanics from the pack side are on subcontracting restrictions.
What does this mean for the bid/no-bid call?
Gate the share on its own merits: margin after flow-down, payment risk after chain diligence, and opportunity cost after exclusivity, with a named role and stated assumptions, reviewed when the prime’s position changes. Supporting three primes on the same tender triples the cost and divides the loyalty; pick deliberately or not at all.